"When will the iPhone 15 drop?" is the question of the hour. The iPhone 15 release date is set to be unveiled today, and although Apple has not officially confirmed when we'll be getting our hands on these new smartphones, we can make predictions based on previous launch dates.
Hardware companies are rarely inconsistent with launch dates, and Apple is no exception. Yearly products of this kind often need to be released in a tight window, otherwise, it'll be hard to sell people on your newly released product if a new one comes out too close to the previous model. And based on the iPhone release dates for the past several years, we have a prediction on when the iPhone 15 is coming out.
When will the iPhone 15 drop? (prediction)
With the Apple September event falling on Sept. 12, that should mean that the iPhone 15 will be available to preorder on Sept. 15 and have a release date of Sept. 22. Read on for the logic behind our educated guess.
We are 99.99% sure that the iPhone 15 series will debut at Apple's September event today, as Apple has not missed this announcement window since 2012.
But iPhone launch dates are nowhere near as consistent. The only complete pattern is that they have been released in the fall ever since the iPhone 4S (excluding SE models), which came out all the way back in 2011. Otherwise, specific months can be a bit jumbled, but from analyzing previous dates, it's clear that Apple favors one specific month over others.
| Phone | Release date | Day of the week |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone 14 | September 16, 2022 | Friday |
| iPhone 13 | September 24, 2021 | Friday |
| iPhone 12 | October 23, 2020 | Friday |
| iPhone 11 | September 20, 2019 | Friday |
| iPhone XS | September 14, 2018 | Friday |
| iPhone X | November 3, 2017 | Friday |
As the table indicates above, Apple adores September. If we disregard the iPhone 12's October launch (a result of COVID-19 delays) and iPhone X's November release (delayed due to issues with original Face ID hardware), a majority of the previous six iPhone models were released within a ten-day span from Sept. 14 to Sept. 24.
There are only two Fridays that fall within that aforementioned ten-day span this year, and those are Sept. 15 and Sept. 22.
Prior to Apple locking in its event as September 12, it was pretty much a coin toss, but we can now be confident that the pre-order should be on Sept. 15 with the phones shipping and available in-store on Sept. 22.
You can follow along with all of the announcements on our Apple September event liveblog if you can't watch the event live.
