15 Current Technologies My Newborn Son Won't Use

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From the moment that I found out my wife was pregnant with our first child, a son, I’ve thought of his development in terms of tech. When pregnancy sites described our six-week-old fetus as the size of a “lentil,” I referred to him as the length of an RFID chip. When the doctor said he had reached 1.3 pounds, I told all my friends that my son was the size of an iPad. When he was born this week, he was about the size of an HP Envy 15, though unfortunately his cries did not use Beats Audio.

As my newborn son grows to match the size of a mid-tower desktop, a large-screen TV and eventually a server rack, I can’t help but think about all the gadgets he won’t even remember using that were so important to his dad. I’m not talking about long dead-and-buried technologies such as the VHS recorder or the 35mm camera. Rather, I’m thinking about devices and concepts most of us use today that will fall out of mainstream use so soon that he either won’t remember them, or will only have very hazy memories of having lived with them.

Wired Home Internet

I was surprised when a 23-year-old co-worker told me she didn't remember a time before broadband Internet. At some point, her parents must have had dial-up, but she was so young that she doesn't even remember back that far. Wireless broadband won't dominate the home market until he's 8 to 10, but my son won't remember a world where consumers pay for wired Internet connections.

Even today, 4G LTE provides comparable download speeds and better upload speeds than cable Internet, but the cost of using mobile broadband all the time is prohibitive. At some point in the next few years, broadband providers are going to realize that giving everyone home antennas is more scalable than wiring and maintaining each street's network of fiber-optic cables. At that point, the paradigm will shift and it will be cheaper to purchase wireless than wired Internet. Clear already offers a 4G WiMax home Internet hub with unlimited service, though it's not fast enough to compete with cable Internet.

Read more: Nationwide 4G Showdown

Dedicated Cameras and Camcorders

Smartphone cameras are already killing the consumer point-and-shoot and the family camcorder. Unlike cameras, which most of us carry only when we think we might need to take pictures, smartphones are always with us. They offer all kinds of apps and filters for adjusting pictures on the fly and they allow us to share our photos and videos online as soon as we take them. DSLRs and micro four-thirds cameras will remain with us, but within a few years, the average consumer won't own a dedicated camera at all.

Read more: Top 10 Camera Apps: Do More With Your Smartphone Cam

Landline Phones

As of 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 26 percent of U.S. homes had wireless phones only. By the time my son turns 5 in 2017, only a handful of old people and Luddites will continue to own house phones while everyone will likely use cellphones exclusively. By the time my son is 10, most businesses will have done away with their desk phones and saved a lot of money and hassle in the process.

Read more: Top 10 Smartphones Available Now

Slow-Booting Computers

Waiting for one's computer to boot is one of the great tech frustrations of the PC era, but my son will never know that pain. With the move toward always-on computing, future users will almost never turn their computers off, instead waking them from sleep in a second or less. New operating systems will be able to install updates and patches without requiring a reboot. However, if for some reason, you do need to restart the computer, boots will take only a couple of seconds because of SSDs and fast-starting operating systems like Windows 8. "When I was your age, we had to wait up to two minutes for a computer to power on, and we liked it," I'll tell him.

Read more: Top 10 Ultrabooks

Windowed Operating Systems

When my son is ready for his own computer, the windows will be gone from Windows. Microsoft 's PC operating system will still exist, as will Mac OS X. But, in the next few years, we'll say good bye to the window metaphor where each application you run is displayed in a draggable box that has a title bar and widgets.

Microsoft has already signaled its intent to kill the window metaphor by making the tile-based Metro UI the default screen for Windows 8. How long before Mac OS and even Ubuntu also default to touch-friendly UIs that don't have tiny widgets?

Read more: Windows 8's Competing Interfaces Will Double Your Effort, Halve Your Fun

Hard Drives

My first computer, a TI 99, used cassette tapes to store data. My second computer used 5.25-inch floppy disks, and the third system had a combination of a 3.5-inch floppy drive and a small IDE hard drive. The next PC had a zip drive and a tape backup unit. However, as different as these disks were, they all used the same magnetic platter technology that's been popular since reel-to-reel tapes ruled the earth.

Today, solid state drives finally allow us to end the ancient practice of storing our data on spinning magnetic platters. Because they have no moving parts, SSDs are infinitely faster than hard drives and more durable, too. Today, the cost of solid-state storage is significantly higher than magnetic media, but expect that delta to shrink significantly over the years while users come to expect SSD speeds from even low-end computers. By the time my son gets his first new laptop, you won't be able to buy one without an SSD. Hard drives and their cheap storage will only remain useful for servers, where space is more important than speed.

Read more: SATA III SSD Showdown: Which Solid State Drive is Fastest?

Movie Theaters

Pundits have been predicting the death of the movie theater since the first televisions hit the market, but this time, it's really going to happen for a number of reasons. First, with large HD televisions going mainstream and 3D sets becoming more affordable, the average home theater is almost as good as the average multiplex theater. Second, studios and their cable partners have begun releasing some movies for on-demand viewing on the same day they debut in theaters, a trend which is likely to continue.

Finally, the cost of going to a movie theater is so out of control — movie tickets in New York cost around $13 each — that nobody is going to keep paying it. In a world where an on-demand film that's still in theaters costs $7 to rent and one that just left the theater streams for $2.99 from Amazon, who will spend more than $50 for a family of four to go see the same movie surrounded by annoying patrons, dirty seats and overpriced popcorn? Art house theaters that offer specialized films and a sense of community may remain, but the average multiplex will be gone before my son notices it was ever there.

The Mouse

Within five years, the cost of adding capacitive touch capability to screens will be so small that every display, from large-screen TVs to laptops, will have it. More precise pointing devices such as the mouse and touchpad won't disappear overnight, but they'll likely fade away or become secondary input methods within the next several years. Already with Windows 8, the user interface will support touch even if you don't necessarily need to use it all the time.

Read more: What to Look for in a Touchpad

3D Glasses

Ever since the first 3D films hit theaters in the 1950s, viewers have been forced to wear some kind of glasses in order to experience three-dimensional effects. However, in the past year or so, we've started seeing a number of glasses-free solutions hit the market.

In 2011, Toshiba released the Qosmio F755 notebook, which uses its webcam to track your eye movements and serve up really compelling 3D images, though these are only optimized for a single viewer. Last year, phone vendors HTC and LG both launched handsets with glasses-free, stereoscopic 3D screens that weren't home theater quality, but were good enough for some three-dimensional fun. By the time my son is 10, large-screened devices like TVs will be able to offer a compelling glasses-free 3D experience to many viewers at the same time.

Read more: Will 3D Smartphones Fall Flat?

Remote Controls

When I was a child, the family TV didn't even have a remote control. We had to actually get up and walk across the room to change the channel. By the time my son enters grade school, most of us will have moved on to either using our smartphones or a combination of gestures and voice commands to change channels.


By the time my son is in elementary school, PC vendors will have stopped producing most desktop computers, though all-in-ones with large screens, high-end workstations for people who do industrial-strength computations, and servers (probably in blade form) will remain. As someone who loves to build desktops from parts, I hope the market for PC components remains intact so my son and I will still be able to custom build a computer together, but I fear that option may disappear too.

Read more: Top 10 Tablets Available Now

Phone Numbers

I still remember my parents' phone number, which hasn't changed in more than 30 years, but how many of us dial numbers rather than just tapping a name in our contacts menu? With the advent of VoIP chat services like Skype, Google Talk and even Facebook audio chat, you can just dial someone by username. When my son is in high school, he'll be asking the pretty girl on the bus for her user ID, not her phone number.

Read more: Hands on with Skype for Windows Phone

Prime-time Television

In ancient times, people had to gather around their TVs at a set time each week to watch "Starsky and Hutch." Then VCRs arrived and you could find out whether the Duke boys outsmarted Boss Hogg any time you wanted. DVRs now let us tape shows without using tapes, but because most TV networks make their shows available for free either via Web streaming or cable on-demand, we don't even have to record shows.

Fax Machines

In the age of email, instant messaging and 4G connections, there's only one lame excuse for the continued existence of the fax machine, a gadget that had its heyday in the 1970s, and that excuse has to do with signatures. Some companies and their lawyers will only accept a scribbled signature as valid on contracts and forms, so if you want to file that loan application or send in your insurance claim form with your signature on it, fax may still be your best option.

However, three things will finally slay the fax. First, more companies will start accepting online forms with electronic signatures as valid, so someone's illegible signature on a hard copy isn't needed. Second, for those who just can't let go of the signature requirement, touch devices will allow people to scribble their John Hancocks into digital forms. Finally, the death of landlines will also mean death for fax machines.

Optical Discs

I still remember the first DVD I bought, because it was a copy of "Hard Boiled" that I ordered from a now-defunct website called Urban Fetch. It may take until my son turns 10 for the major entertainment companies to stop publishing in DVD and Blu-ray format, but make no mistake, discs aren’t long for this world.

Optical discs will last another decade or so because consumers aren't eager to repurchase films they already own on disc and because there are still a number of old or rare titles you can't find on cloud services like iTunes or Amazon. Yet with the growth in downloadable and streaming video services, all physical media is on the fast track to extinction.

Read more: Tech to Watch 2012: The Cloud Eclipses Gadgets

Online Editorial Director Avram Piltch oversees the production and infrastructure of LAPTOP's web site. With a reputation as the staff's biggest geek, he has also helped develop a number of LAPTOP's custom tests, including the LAPTOP Battery Test. Catch the Geek's Geek column here every other week or follow Avram on twitter.

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Author Bio
Avram Piltch
Avram Piltch, LAPTOP Online Editorial Director
The official Geeks Geek, as his weekly column is titled, Avram Piltch has guided the editorial and production of Laptopmag.com since 2007. With his technical knowledge and passion for testing, Avram programmed several of LAPTOP's real-world benchmarks, including the LAPTOP Battery Test. He holds a master’s degree in English from NYU.
Avram Piltch, LAPTOP Online Editorial Director on
Add a comment
  • Randy Says:

    I loved your comment on the death of "windowed" operating systems in favor of the Metro tiled style. That sure didn't work out like you predicted. Windows 10 is totally going back to the windowed OS...thankfully. W8 was a nightmare to use.

  • Jarvk Genovis Says:

    I have an 8 track player and tapes in my Tesla plus satellite radio.

  • ninj Says:

    I hope, I can still build my own PC from parts in future. I don't want a device whom I am not the owner but some company like Google, Micrososft or Apple. My prediction is that in order to gain more comfort and usability we will give up our ownership of the devices we buy. One example are tablets and smartphones, where you can't install any XY app or build your own program in any programming language. The trend is that people except that they are data cows for companies that make big money from the collected data. I hope, that we will stop this someday and get back the ownership over our data and devices.

  • Johnf622 Says:

    1 Program you'r planting of crops to coincide whenever you can log onto your farm to reap them. dbfecdeggbdc

  • Nick B Says:

    Hand gestures won't replace mice gaming on pc and someone will always make dekstop parts. As for Windows I will have to stop using it if they force us to use the metro ui. I don't see the problem with keeping windows, if it ain't broken don't fix it. Landlines will always be there in some sort of way, or atleast a large phone system for companies. At the state mobile internet is in now, I think it will not evolve and replace land lines for MANY years to come. Yes it may be almost as fast as land internet, but that's for one device, either everything will have it's own sim or whatever and then you have to pay for each/have them in a group deal either that or one shares a wireless hub. Seeming as landline is being updated as well as wirless there will be a while before it's replacement.

  • Daniel Narvaes Says:

    Nobody else said it, but I think you are also wrong about businesses doing away with their desk phones. Desk phones are less hassle than wireless for businesses, not more. They can be used in conjunction with wireless headsets to go all over the building for those who want them, but the desk phone will stay. Especially for any person who works in the same office all day and makes a lot of calls as part of their job, it's much more convenient to reach for the phone and know it is right there, instead of fumbling around looking for it, or having to go back home to get it. Add the convenience of using all the functionality provided by a PBX and dialing only a 3 or 4 digit extension number to reach anyone in the office, and you really can't replace all this with cell phones very easily.

  • FrankD Says:

    Are you really a geek? 4G is only fast because it's lightly used by relatively few people when compared to FTTH. Good luck trying to fill the airwaves with all that crap, aside from the fact that it leaves EVERYONE prone at the same time to any random prankster with a super simple transmitter injecting noise and easily disabling everyone's internet. ASIDE from the fact that these "wireless towers," would still need fiber connections.

    No, sir. It will never happen.

  • Tom Says:

    Movie theaters better not go extinct. They won't.

  • Shane G. Says:

    He just might WISH he could use some of these old technologies when he develops myriad health problems associated with pulsed, non-ionizing, radio frequency radiation that will surround him. I hope his dear old dad will remember the days when humans could live in their environments without headaches, heart palpitations, endorphin addiction to wireless frequencies, sleep difficulties, parotid gland cancers, etc. He may be able to tell his son about the time when school rooms weren't equipped with defribillators to save children when they have "heart events" caused by wireless routers and iPads that they will all be getting. When DNA wasn't altered by this toxic technology. When feee access was afforded to all who wished to frequent their neighborhood library, coffee shop, city council meetings before wireless made these areas inaccessible. When families weren't forced to have so-called "smart meters" attached to their homes, creating non-stop exposures to wireless radiation, 24/7. Dad, please try to let your precious son know that there was once a time before big telecom took over, infiltrated the government with special interest lobbyists, and made us go unconscious to what is really happening. Teach him well. It's your job. Thank you.

  • Gerald S. Says:

    So let me get this straight. Guy writes an article about 15 predictions and he can't even get the FIRST one right? I don't write for any magazines or blogs and I'm not an IT guy but even I know that is flat out intellectual dishonest. Lets look at cable modems for example. Considering the DOCSIS 3.1 platform is aiming to support capacities of at least 10Gbit/s downstream and 1Gbit/s upstream, I think it's safe to say wired broadband isn't going anywhere in the next couple of decades. Until some sort of new long range wireless technology is invented, we won't be seeing those kinds of wireless speeds anytime soon. Sure not everybody needs that kind of speed, but rarely is anything ever about need when you're a consumer. This isn't even taking into account how much more secure wired connections are.

    I still keep my home PC wired to my router as well. Thanks, but I think I'll keep my 150megabit per second down 20 megabit per second up cable modem connection.

  • Ken Says:

    While I agree that these things will go away sometime, but their date of death is dependent on access speed and bandwidth. The US is still lagging many countries in having uniform broadband access at a reasonable cost. Our local area not far from a major metropolitan city has only two providers of high-speed Internet and the data transfer costs are prohibitive for many of the applications he thinks will replace these items. DVDs may be passé, but the data cost for downloading a movie, particularly HD is much higher than its cost - locally $1/GB for 4G access. With local DSL and cable broadband speeds and numerous prime time users, forget streaming any high-quality video without jerks and stops.

    The aging and inadequate US communication infrastructure is a major roadblock to many technical advances and has been ignored for so long that no one considers when making predictions like these. I advise a number of small businesses who would like to use cloud services, but access limitations and costs kill that idea every time.

  • Tianna Xander Says:

    I have to disagree on the digital camera angle--at least for a while. My day job is in a photo lab. I can't tell you how many people try to get photos they took using their phones printed. Most of the time, the photo is blurry, pixelated and just plain bad. I've often told people, if you want good photos you need a camera. The photos taken with your phone are great for sharing online and good in a pinch, but most phones don't take photos worth making into a 4x6 let alone anything larger.

    If you can get a phone with a 14 mega pixel camera, optical zoom and ISO controls, then buy it. Otherwise buy a camera. You'll be happier with the photos and won't lose that important one of the baby's first steps.

    Tiled windows will be a thing of the past? I hope not. I HATE windows 8. If I wanted a tablet, I would have bought one. Also, I want to pay once for a program. I don't want to have to pay a monthly or yearly subscription for something I can pay once for now. That's what Windows 8 is all about. It's making personal PCs more like android tablets and storing everything on the cloud or in sky drives. You might have to pay a subscription price MONTHLY or YEARLY for every app you use (at least this is what I've been told. My information could be wrong) and could be forced into the new version every time there is one whether you have the time to spend on that steep learning curve or not, because your subscription will make updates to the new software automatic. Why not? If this is true, you would be paying for it over and over and over again. I get trained on this crap regularly. I can see it coming, but it doesn't mean I have to like it. The only way people like me can fight back is to say I'm NOT buying into it--and I won't.

    I hope movie theaters don't go away. I LOVE seeing a good sci-fi or action flick on the big screen. Sure 3D home theaters are getting better, but I don't know anyone who has a big IMAX screen in their livingroom...yet.

    As for the other stuff, I like the idea of the SSD drive. they have less moving parts and are less likely to crash and lose your data. The other stuff I can see going away. I haven't had a land line phone in years and I couldn't give a crap about the rest of it.

  • L.E. Says:

    Wired internet? I have broadband and dial-up. Broadband is faster – when it works. A little rain and my dial-up gets used. When we have adequate, high speed universal coverage, people will give up hard wires. Maybe I’ll life that long.

    My telephone landline will go away when I don't have to use it in order to ring my misplaced cell so I can find the cell phone.

    My mouse still has a wire plugged into my PC so when the cat smacks it off the desk, I can still find it.

    Touch screens – I don’t think so - That same cat likes to rub against the screen because the static electricity tickles its fur.

    Hand-helds and laptops are small enough for that cat to push off desks and look really cool as they fall to the floor.

    Trusting my personal storage to Cloud makes about as much sense as trusting the people at F/B with private data.

    As for hand-helds of any type replacing full size versions – anybody notice that screens got smaller and smaller til suddenly the screens started getting bigger?

    Movie theaters – not entirely, particularly for people who want the experience. If someone just wants to see the movie, then, yeah, big home screens are the way to go.

    Slow-booting computers – I wish. While many people are going to constantly on, for those of us whose electricity goes out every rain storm, and who have learned to shut down and unplug every time we leave the house, we’re still going to boot up. Yeah, yeah, back-up batteries, surge protectors, all those toys – been there, done that, lost more than one power supply because those devices are not as reliable as they pretend to be.

  • Jim Says:

    Absolute atypical bu****t. "Laptops are the new thing" "Tablets will replace pc's" Whatever, get a real job.

  • Alverant Says:

    Many of us who still have landlines are NOT luddites. Myself, I don't need a cell phone. There are times when I don't want people to be able to contact me. A landline serves all my needs AND I'm not paying hundreds of dollars a month for an electronic leash.

    Landlines are not going away. Not as many people will use them, but they're still cheaper and more reliable than cells.

    As for the others, I can see them staying around. With cloud computing you're not buying the book/movie/music you're buying access to it. Access that can be turned off at a moment's notice. What's going to happen to all those thousands of dollars you spent on Amazon emedia when the company goes under and gets replaced by the next big thing? Who will be laughing then?

  • Andrew Fox Says:

    wired home internet - definitely will still be around, fibre is much faster than 4g as it offers speeds up to 1gbps
    same with wireless internet within the home, it is around 45mbps in best situations and for streaming blu-ray quality you would need greater speeds

    Dedicated Cameras and Camcorders - Standalone cameras have better lenses and sensors than mobiles, there is no optical zoom on a phone. they won't be going away.

    landline - yes that will be gone for sure

    slow-booting computers - of course they will be gone, all of my pcs already boot extremely fast

    Windowed Operating Systems - doubt it, you can't do powerful mutlitasking without a windowed operating system. Having to switch between seperate fullscreen apps constantly would be a productivity nightmare.

    Hard Drives - Probably right that SSDs will overtake them

    Movie Theaters - I dunno man, 4k resolution is coming. Starting with the hobbit, nobody has 4k sets at home yet although maybe in 10yrs consumers will have access to 3D 48fps 4k screens...

    The Mouse - Haha nah that will still be around in 10yrs, you can't beat it as an input method. Touch is okay for some things but I couldn't imagine trying to do any sort of graphics work on a touchscreen ugh

    3D Glasses - I sure hope so!

    Remote Controls - Yeah I can see phones replacing those :)

    Desktops - I hope not. Seems kinda silly having to setup a laptop on a dock to access multiple displays and how would you go about upgrading components? I doubt the desktop will disappear

    Phone Numbers - Well yeah, people already ask for facebook instead of phone number. So that one has gone already.

    Prime-time Television - Although prime-time television as you know it will disapper, there will still be certain times each week that an episode is released for the show you watch. Same sort of deal

    Fax Machines - Definitley needs to go, they are stupid as hell. Just scan the document and email it as a PDF.

    Optical Discs - The internet has to advance before they can get rid of optical discs. When movies on blu-ray are around 45gb each it's expensive to store them and transmit them. I don't know any legal online services that provide that level of quality.

  • Josh Says:

    Anyone predicting the death of movie theaters because of improvements in home theater technology and same-day-as-in-theater release dates doesn't understand why most people go to the movies in the first place. I watch hundreds of movies a year but only a dozen or so in the theater. Otherwise I'm watching on my outdated 36" home TV. The last non flatscreen TV in the state of Texas I think. When I do go to the theater it's not because I have to see a certain movie presented in the biggest possible medium or because I simply can't wait three months for it to show up on netflix. It's not some inconvenience that I have to sit here with all these strangers just so I can see this movie. Watching it with all those strangers is the whole point. It's a shared experience. It actually enhances the movie. Even a mediocre comedy is markedly funnier f the crowd is into it. Some films should only be viewed in a theater setting. Lame horror movies and cliche disaster flicks for example. Home theater is fine for most of what I watch but it's limited in the fact that it's a "home" theater. Same reason a sports fans will leave the comfort and convenience of their living room to watch a game at a bar on what is often a smaller screen. Or why hundreds of thousands of them buy tickets n the nosebleed section of stadiums where you;re lucky if you can tell which team is which. Those sporting venues aren't going anywhere and neither are movie theaters. If the cost of going to see a movie in a theater is exorbitantly high right now it's because the tichets are still selling out. When they reach the point that people can't stomach it or can't afford iit they'll stop buying up all the tickets and the market will adjust. $13i might sound like a lot for a movie ticket when they used to be only few dollars, and a $5 Mr. Pibb is even more ridiculous, but if you compare the total cost of the ticket and concessions and compare it to another outing, say a live concert, it's actually pretty affordable. A few select names in the music industry, artists or groups with huge baby-boomer fanbases that have a lot more expendable income than younger audiences, are charging $200 dollars for a concert ticket. To me that's ridiculous. $200 for three hours of bad live versions of song young already know. Eight dollar beers. An hour stuck in traffic afterwards. It makes thirty bucks spent at the theater seem pretty reasonable. And those ridiculously expensive concert tickets aren't going anywhere either. No matter what advances are made in audio technology in the future.

  • Mark Says:

    Movie theaters gone in a few years? NO WAY, JOSE'! We thought the same thing in the early '80s at the advent of pay per view. Working next to a medium sized movie theater, TRUST ME-your now infant son will be making out in the dark in one of those before he's 20!

  • Shahzad Danish Says:

    Here, in 3rd world country (Karachi) Pakistan, technologies (surprisely they exist) that have / are already quickly becoming outdated:
    1. WiMax internet have all but replaced cabled dsl or dialup etc
    2. Cabled phone now rarely in home replaced by wireless Mobile Phone
    3. Mobile camera, Nokia Pureview, Samsung galaxy, Iphone have all but replaced Dedicated Digital Camera
    4. Laptot are becoming more common than Desktops in homes connected to large LCDs
    5. Fax machine being a rarity in most offices or home replaced by email
    6. Watching movies cheaply at home on Hdtvs with home theatre, projecter etc rather than going to costlier cinema complex

  • Patrick Says:

    @Matthew what the writer is trying to say is that Sata will go away for the general consumer, can you tell me what in the world you will ever need 100 TB Hard drives for? I mean in the casual consumers point of view, 100 TB is alot of information, and without newer technology to adapt for the information size on a SATA hard drive, a 100TB HD would be extremely slow. Most regular consumers can get away with a 1TB HD and you can buy 1TB SSDs now, they are expensive, but the price will drop as soon as technology expands as it always does and SSD tech will become cheap just like the SATA did. I can remember a 500mb HD going for 500$ back in the day when the tech was new, I mean, we were paying a dollar per megabyte. It may sound crazy to some of you, but for those of us that were around for those days it was punishing. I can also remember when you could only get a 50 mb hardrive and the rest came from floppy disk. Our civilization is quickly advancing, and even though we have not come as far as some thought we would have by now, can you imagine, technology expands exponentially, and moores law will still be in effect for awhile now, there is a limit to how long moores law can keep going, but were not near the end yet.

  • Patrick Says:

    Most of these technologies will go away, in fact, I agree with most of them, the phone number will be replaced by the internet, the internet being the beginning of a type I civilization phone system, and we are well on our way to being a Type I civ, right now most physicists rate us at about a 0.7 Civilization. Optical Disks will go away before 2030 I am sure, and as for 3d glasses we have already started getting rid of them, I know some people have claimed that because of the way our eyes work 3d glasses cannot go away, but I am here to tell you that is wrong, Nintendo already has figured it out with the 3ds and that technology will soon be finding its way to regular 3d televisions. In fact, by the year 2100 it is predicted that we will be watching Holographic TV, so by 2030 I am positive that 3d glasses will be long forgotton. Yet, most of this has already been predicted by Michio Kaku and if you dont know who that is your living in a science bubble from the 1950's. A well reknown physicist who has wrote many books and lectures on this topic, look him up on google, and you tube actually has a lecture from him about our technology in 2030, you should take a look at it!

  • Figmo Says:

    Obviously you are not a movie buff.

    I'm a tech junkie. Got all that sh** - DVR, NetFlix, Hulu, dedicated PC hooked to my 70" screen with a wireless remote that has a full qwerty keyboard and touchpad. Also not ashamed to say that I download movies (pirate) from time to time. With all that - I can now literally watch ANYTHING I want - ANY TIME I want to watch it. All from the comfort of my living room sofa.

    And you know what? My wife and I still go to the theater EVERY Sunday and pay that $13 for a ticket. Why? Because the theater is not about just seeing a movie. It's an expierience. It's "going out" - getting off the sofa. It's interacting with other human beings and being with friends. It's hearing the gasps and screams from people behind you when the 20ft tall boogy man jumps out from behind the curtain.

    And I promise you - when your son hits 12 or 13 the *LAST* thing he will want to do is sit on the sofa and watch a movie with you. I don't care how big your screen is or how amazing your sound system is. The theater will always be the "great escape".

  • caleb Says:

    if the Mouse will disappear, how about keyboard? you think keyboard can live alone without mouse?

  • Smango Says:

    My son, my son, my son...yeah we get it. You're a father, big deal.

  • Kelindel Says:

    I don't see the desktop computer or the mouse dieing out. Some of the other ones I think will last longer, but those two in particular I just can't see departing from use. Aside from the standard responses of working at a desk being very common and the like, technology and power in a laptop is just not up to speed with a desktop and with the rapid acceleration of desktop technologies I don't see them catching up either.

    The average person could probably shift to a laptop yes, however people who are wanting to do any sort of semi-intensive and greater work are going to need the beefier desktops. Video editors and people who run in a highly technical profession are more likely to use a desktop. Likewise we cannot forget the billion dollar industry of computer gaming. Right now it is expanding rapidly and there are very very very few gaming laptops out there. The vast majority of gamers use a desktop and a mouse to operate their games. That alone I think will keep the market alive longer than indicated in this article.

  • Miles Says:

    Who is this guy anyway? Movie theaters going away? Where else can you see a movie - on a large screen tv? One thing he is missing is the communal aspects of certain activities (in addition to the fact that no where else can you often see limited run and independent films). Yeah, lets watch Dark Knight Rising on a small tv screen, no imax...

    As for the others, true, some of the things will be subsumed by other technologies (fax machines in PC, etc. SSDs getting cheap). But certain things that require standardization won't, as well as the fact that certain technologies don't exist yet to replace...

    It's like someone saying 2001 a space odyssey actually happens in 2001.

  • FastRobPlus Says:

    I already quit using my Atari ST mouse 15 years ago.

  • homo Says:

    How nice for your son that you assume he will be heterosexual and asking girls for their used id. jerk.

  • Carlos Says:

    I will never stop going to movie theaters..they're timeless. a place to go with a large circle of friends to have fun or to go on a date with a girl that you've been talking to, we all know that's the best feeling in the world. stealing a kiss halfway through the movie. the thought of theaters being at home just makes me think of deserted streets and socially awkward people not leaving their house. haha it's probably just me, but i love movie theaters.

  • Fik-of-borg Says:

    Ok, I confess I barely have used Metro, but I don't see much difference between windows (an on-screen resizeable and movable rectangle where data is shown, with or without bar or popup menus) and tiles (an on-screen resizeable and movable rectangle where data is shown, with or without bar or popup menus). It is the rounded vs right-angled corners?

    I haven't found a way / don't know if it is possible to stack tiles the way I can stack windows (so I can work on a window while keeping an eye on a small area of another window behind), but IMO that is a disadvantage.
    Must tiles be positioned / sized on a rigid grid, or they can be freely and continuously dragged anywhere like classic windows? Falling only on a rigid grid would also be a disadvantage.

  • MrCrumley Says:

    Unless we develop invisible fingers and indefatigable arm and shoulder muscles, we will always have the mouse.

  • guy incognito Says:

    Does this guy have a point, or is he just hocking Windows 8? The mouse has been around since the 60's (SRI invention), movies are constantly setting attendance/earnings records, and phone numbers aren't going away. They're just becoming more portable. As for the storage issue, how dull in this field do you have to be to not know that the eternal struggle of hard drives is size/cost/speed. Very few people have ever sacrificed speed for space. Most people probably took the 5400 rpm 1TB drive over the 500GB 7200 today. And it has always been that way. If an SSD comes out with a 1TB hard disk, you will be able to get a slower disk with 5 times the storage for 1/5 the cost. Speed is always sacrificed for storage for most people. It's as if this person just picked up a Best Buy catalog and a list of buzz words, then decided to write an article.

  • Jules Says:

    You need to stop thinking about your son in terms of gadgetry. He's a flesh-and-blood human being, not a cyborg. Get your head out of your gadgets and GO PLAY WITH YOUR BABY! And "play" does not mean "show him this cool game on the iPad." "Play" means physically interact with him. Dangle toys for him to grasp. Pick him up and cuddle him. Just for heaven's sake PUT THE DAMN GADGETS DOWN!

  • really Says:

    try playing call of duty on a touch screen, will feel primitive compared to a high-dpi 8-button mouse of today

  • MM Says:

    Loved the article. My grandsons at a year, can swipe an iPhone open. They know where their own folder is kept and access the toddler games inside. Cut the Rope and Angry Birds Rio seem to be a favourite plus of course Lego and Thomas the Tank Engine. I delight in seeing technology that many people don't understand being accessed with ease by a small child. They have that innate power to concentrate on a task and work to understand, fit all the pieces of acquired knowledge together and voila! the job is done. As we grow up, our boundaries expand, other things come into view and we do not have that toddler's concentrated thinking.

    When transistors were just coming in, trying to convince my grandfather that his valve amplifier would produce the same power as the tiny chip in my hand was difficult. My mother on the other hand embraced technology such as it was in the 70s and had the first home computer on the block. She would have loved all thats going on now. I have no doubt she would have an iPad and smartphone the minute they came out.

    I look forward to further 'IT' developments and my grandsons as they grow up with it.

  • Chris Says:

    I don't see myself using a computer without a mouse,not even my childs.I know, technology is going pretty fast but it's gonna take a while

  • thisisstupid Says:

    If you think your son will never use a mouse then I'm assuming he never plans of ever being a PC gamer. Touch screen will never be more accurate and precise as using a mouse.

    Also, desktops will never go away. they are a power house that no laptops can compete with, and they don't overheat unless you don't take care of them or you overclock them whereas gaming on a laptop will make that poor sucker overheat years before it should if you never used it to game.

    learn 2 technology

  • ieldanth Says:

    Am I the only one who read the "In a world..." paragraph in Don LaFontaine's voice?

  • Fred Says:

    I'm of the same opion as those above: Most of these technologies won't disapear anytime soon.
    Of all the technologies we know today (not resptricted to the blogpost) some may be less used, some will indeed be totaly abandonned, some may also be used more than today.

    - Improvements affect both new and old technologies.
    Whereas Avram Piltch suggest old tech will remain at their same state as of today while new hot stuff will get awesome.
    As if movie theatres were still displaying black and white movies and crappy sound!
    Photo cameras (soon to go 3D) are always one step ahead of cellphones.
    Even fax machines could survive if they integrated more computer and internet technologies. Getting an instant printed document is not that bad a concept.

    - New stuffs are not always reliable. Think of on-demand movies and music. Yeah, you can dowload anything at anytime... but you are always dependent of external serice providers, on what they decide is available or not, account expirations, bill payment, company bankrupcy, etc... hard storage is the only safe way to get "anything at anytime".
    Solid state storage is cool but a terminated DVD cannot be accidentaly erased. Wireless is easily put everywhere but try to get a decent signal acroos 3 floors of armed concrete.

    - Old stuffs are easier to use. I'm not an old person but I'm already tired of all these new stuffs.
    When I buy a new player I don't even bother putting batteries in the remote control. Pressing a button on the machine itself is still my favorite way to do it.
    New technologies tend to be more complicated and finaly not everything is the idealistic solution we thought it would be.
    Basicaly some technologies are here to stay because there will never be anything else better for a given task.

    To get a paper version the fastest way is to take a pencil, using a computer and printer is a huge loss of time and money.
    On the opposite, to get a digital version the least practical method would be to use a drawing tablet and handwrite on it.
    Yet, both exapmles are promoted as the most advanced technologies!

  • tom Says:

    Signatures are going to be a problem. My grandkids are not being taught in the public schools any cursive lettering. Instead they learn how to type.

  • Cliff Says:

    Dear Avram:
    RE: " When my son is in high school, he'll be asking the pretty girl on the bus for her user ID, not her phone number."
    QUESTION: What makes you believe in the longevity the the technology called "THE BUS?"
    In 1912, there were Fathers who said to sons: "Son . . . there will always be Horses!"

  • Jens Says:

    When I was your age, I had to wait up to 0,1 seconds for a computer to power on...
    1st Computer: ZX81
    2nd Computer: C64

  • Mattwill Says:

    Ethernet, Desktop and Mouse will still live in 15 years!

  • Yooooo Says:

    Wired ethernet will still exist.
    - it's still the easiest way to get a secure network hard to break in...
    - there are a limited number of channels for efficient wireless communication. This is a physical limit. So i doubt there will be a solution for this in 10 years...

    Physical media like CD/DVD/BluRay will still exist.
    - maybe not for all the trash movies and music we get every day. But for the things which will be still worth to buy, hold in your hands, unpack it and have fun with it. This has to do with something called "haptic" and since humans will be still themself build by physical components and will have at least 5 senses and not only two, there will be a market for physical medias with fun on it. But only for this things that are worth somethng itself, of course...
    - last year the falling sales volume for CDs tend to stagnate. The DVDs falling will be compensated by BluRays (DVDs are still bestseller). The problem is the falling price of the content itself which gets the distributors of media content into financial problems.

  • gerims Says:

    Landlines won't be a thing of the past until cell phone coverage improves dramatically. I can't even use my cellphone in my home, and the luddites in my town keep voting down permits to install cell tower. And anytime I travel to rural or mountainous areas - no cell coverage, but ample landline access. There are politics involved as well as the cost of technology.

  • Vertex Says:

    The "wireless bandwidth" of our atmosphere is not infinite. In the future that bandwidth will be at such a premium for commercial machines and robots, that the majority of home internet connections will always be served by wire/fibre.

  • Brian Says:

    Come to think of it, not so sure about wired ethernet and landline phones, either. Pretty sure there will always be security conscious people who don't want everything broadcast. And another thing about landlines, believe it or not, there really are places in this country where there is pretty much zip for cell coverage, and it's never going to be economically feasible to put a tower in place to cover less populated areas, or every little hamlet that's blocked by a hill.

  • Brian Says:

    Three things I disagree with:

    Movie theaters: It's not just seeing the show. You can watch a Broadway play on your home theater, but would you? Theaters will shift somewhat, becoming events for special occasions rather than where most people watch new releases, but they'll still be around, especially those that offer premium services like full meals delivered to your seat by a waiter. And if theaters can stay ahead of the technology curve (e.g. glass-less 3D), people will still go because not everyone can afford the latest technology for their home when it comes out.

    Slow-booting PC's: Win7 was supposed to speed up booting, too, and it did - for a while. When I got my first Win7 PC, it booted in seconds. Now that I've been using it for a while and all the bloatware is firmly entrenched, it takes several minutes, longer than the XP machines I have in my home (that are older and have even more bloatware). 'Sleep' mode and other 'always-on' technology doesn't help much when the power goes out, does it?

    Optical disks: The medium may continue to change, eventually disks may be the size of a quarter or a nickel, but we'll still have them. I download almost everything, I rarely BUY hard copies, but I often BURN hard copies for archiving. I lost over 400 movies stored on my Media Center PC due to crashes, and while I CAN re-download all of them, I really wish I'd had all of them backed up.

  • richardmagic101 Says:

    Here are some things they will not see. Cameras in 35mm format. Encyclopedia on paper as well as books. The joy of changing tv channels for mom and dad. Home phone for the house. Spiral notebooks as well as pen and paper for school. The ability to count and give back change without the use of a digital device. Weaopons in the house.Guns and rifles. Paper Identification.

  • Trevor Says:

    I will not give up my mouse for touch, just like on my cell phone I didn't give up my keyboard.